📈 The new social web has reached another milestone: Mastodon passed 3 million users and PeerTube 100k users!📈
*But* please be aware: The Fediverse has to grow faster! Currently, it just keeps its level of monthly active users (#MAU) in a year-to-year comparison:
-0.2% Mastodon at currently 444,951 MAU
+2.7% Fediverse 493,924 MAU
Your question is a very valid one, though: Does #fediverse *need* to grow.
One the one hand I think it doesn't, and it is even a quality of this social fabric that it doesn't pursue growth as a metric for success.
Will fedi stagnate if devs jump ship, if a better, shinier #decentralization tech comes along?
--> we might become the 'bulletin boards' of social. Left behind.
Will fedi keep its identity and culture if right now a big tech player decides to adopt the technology and make it their own?
--> we might become the 'corporate fedi' with all the same nastiness of mainstream social media.
@humanetech @rochelimit @christian_zerfass @gerald_leppert VC /corporate investment is generally dependent on exclusivity/market capture. The Fediverse more or less exists to make that capture impossible. I don't expect we'll see a lot of corporate adoption of decentralisation it dilutes their potential for control. We've even seen Jack @ Twitter pledge to create a new "standard" for microblogging... I don't believe he even mention #ActivityPub although he *must* know about it.
The Twitter Bluesky report recently published does contain an investigation of the decentralized technology landscape, that also features #activitypub
I am also not so certain about the inability of Big Tech to decentralize in such way where they stand to benefit. Especially if they are able to potentially throw billions of $$$ to ensure their leading role.
@humanetech @rochelimit @christian_zerfass @gerald_leppert interesting - will read up about it... Will be keen to understand why Twitter doesn't just adopt #ActivityPub (perhaps for the same reason MSFT created OOXML despite ODF being well established already: fauxpen standards - https://openstandards.nz/fauxpen-standards )
@lightweight "Corporate adoption of decentralisation" is such a big word. While I agree that social media companies like Facebook/Instagram, Twitter, Microsoft/LinkedIn are unlikely to wholeheartedly adopt decentralized networks/protocols, other corporate players might think different. Traditional media have a big problem with centralized services. Organisations and public services, too, e.g. due to privacy concerns. Other companies might do as well.
@tchambers @humanetech @rochelimit @christian_zerfass @gerald_leppert I want the fediverse to grow cause I believe it is the best option we have right now to fight against many problems in the world right now that are made possible by facebook having a damn monopoly on the digital communication of almost everyone
@rochelimit That's a good question. IMHO: Yes, the Fediverse definitively needs to grow.
1/ It's good that the MAU is stable and not declining. However, it also means that atm it doesn't attract more new people than people becoming inactive. I don't know whether this is sustainable in the lon run.
2/ There are ~7.8 bn people in the world, thus, many good people who are not yet here. I'd like to see more researchers, politicians, orgs, other active people in the Fediverse.
I must be in a spread-sheety mood this morning or something. I wondered how this worked out by population?
Top by Nodes: US, DE, FR, JP
Top by Active Users: DE, US, JP, FR
Top Nodes % country population: Iceland, Germany, France, Isle of Mann
Top Active users as a percent of population: Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, France, Japan
I looked at the spreadsheet and the idea is great. Unfortunately, the approach has a severe methodological problem. Examples:
1/ Mastodon.social targets international users. With 141,078 6-month active users, it's about 1/3 of Germany-hosted active users in the hosting report.
2/ Switzerland ranks highest. The reason seems to be Switter, an international "sex work-friendly social space" with 87,321 active users, 97% of active users listed as Switzerland-hosted.
@gerald_leppert Unfortunately, unless that statistic factors in users who have joined multiple instances, users who have tried Mastodon and left (dead accounts), and other similar things, that actual live number is probably much, much lower. 😞
@ercanbrack Indeed, the total number of users is an interesting and important number, but - as you describe it - doesn't show the actual live numbers. That's why the #Mastodon monthly active (#MAU) or 6-months active users are so important:
* Users with multiple accounts
* Bot accounts
* The-federation's list is opt-in. It does not list all instances.
* Not all instances report active users due to privacy.